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WB Trading Labs / Indexes at all-time highs / Check it yourself

What happened after the S&P 500 hit an all-time high? Check it yourself

Also the Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000, since 1988 (the Russell 1000 since 1994). Choose the index, how far ahead to look, price alone or with dividends, and whether to count every close at an all-time high (a record) or only the first record of each run. Every dot is one run of records. The shaded band shows where the middle half of all days ended up.

Index
How long after
Change
Count

Each dot is a run of records, placed at the change after its first record. Green: the index higher, red: lower. Dashed line: the average after any day. Hover a dot for its date; every run is listed below.

Every run of records

A record is a close at or above every earlier close in the price index's whole history. A run starts at the first record after at least 3 months without one. "Every record day" counts all record days, so long runs weigh more in it; its chance figure comes from shifting the whole calendar of records. From 1988 (the Russell 1000 from 1994); with dividends for the S&P 500 (from 1988) and the Russell 2000 (from 1995) only. The chance figure for runs is the study's: it compares the runs' median with the median of the same number of random days. Data: Yahoo Finance, to 6 October 2026. The numbers are the study's own.