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What the S&P 500 did after a new high in the 10-year Treasury yield - check it yourself

Choose what counts as a new high and how far ahead to look. Every dot is one such moment since 1962. The shaded band shows where the middle half of all days ended up.

A new high in the 10-year yield is
Look at the S&P 500

Green dots: the S&P 500 higher, red: lower. Dashed line: the median after any day. Hover a dot for its date; every date is listed below.

Every case
Date

The current run of 3 and 5-year highs began on 15 September 2026. On 1 October the 10-year yield stood at 5.24%, 1.14 percentage points above a year earlier.

I count only the first new high after at least 3 months without one. The S&P 500 figure is the index alone, without dividends, after the new highs and after any day alike. Data: FRED (10-year yield, to 1 October 2026), Yahoo Finance (S&P 500, to 5 October 2026), from 1962. The numbers are the study's own.

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